AI Chip Demand Replaces Currency As Malaysia’s Export Engine
TechNode Global reported that RHB Investment Bank Research now sees global semiconductor demand, rather than exchange rates, as the key long-run driver of Malaysia's electrical and electronics exports.
Malaysia's electronics export cycle is becoming a semiconductor-demand story rather than mainly a currency story, TechNode Global reported from an RHB Investment Bank Research note that tied the country's electrical and electronics performance to AI-driven chip demand.
The shift makes Malaysia a clearer proxy for the AI hardware cycle in Asia.
RHB's note treated global semiconductor sales as the long-run driver of Malaysia's electrical and electronics exports, with electronic integrated circuits carrying the largest estimated link to real GDP growth.
RHB Put AI Chip Demand Ahead Of Exchange Rates
The research house's scenario analysis framed Malaysia as more exposed to the global semiconductor cycle than in earlier technology cycles.
Continued AI infrastructure investment could support exports and growth, while a slowdown in chip demand would feed through the same channels.
The note named four product groups with positive, statistically significant relationships to global semiconductor demand: integrated circuits; electronic crystals and parts; office and automatic data-processing machines; and telecommunications equipment.
Investment Is Concentrating In ICT And Higher-Value Manufacturing
RHB put MYR 281.3 billion, or $68.76 billion, of approved services-sector investment in 2025, equal to 65.9 percent of total approved investment.
RHB's note put the ICT sub-sector at MYR 152.9 billion, with AI, data centres, cloud computing and big data driving the allocation.
Manufacturing investment also remained focused on higher-value industries.
RHB put the electrical and electronics manufacturing allocation at MYR 28.5 billion; chemicals, transport equipment, machinery and equipment formed the other named manufacturing areas in the same investment mix.
Integrated Circuits Carry The Largest GDP Link
RHB estimated that a 10 percent swing in worldwide chip demand could move Malaysia's real GDP growth by about 1.14 percentage points through electronic integrated circuits.
That estimate reflected export exposure of 19.2 percent of GDP, a domestic value-added share of 57.7 percent and strong export responsiveness.
Electronic crystals and parts showed the highest export elasticity, but RHB put their GDP effect at 0.34 percentage points because export exposure was 2.7 percent of GDP.
For telecoms equipment, RHB estimated a 0.07 percentage-point effect.
For office and automatic data-processing machines, RHB estimated a 0.04 percentage-point effect.
AI Expansion And Slowdown Scenarios Move Both Ways
Across the four statistically significant product groups, RHB estimated that a 10 percent rise in global semiconductor demand would lift Malaysia's real GDP growth by about 1.01 percentage points, while a 5 percent rise would add 0.51 percentage points.
RHB estimated that a 15 percent severe correction would cut growth by about 1.52 percentage points under the same sensitivity model.
RHB highlighted global semiconductor sales growth accelerating to 118.4 percent year on year in 2026, far above earlier cycle peaks.
RHB treated that pace as unlikely to last indefinitely as AI infrastructure investment matures and capital expenditure normalises.
Malaysia's export sensitivity therefore cuts both ways: AI chip demand supports approved investment, ICT inflows and higher-value manufacturing.
The remaining public gaps are company-level order books, customer commitments, fab utilisation, monthly export data, government follow-up measures and the timing for any semiconductor slowdown to pass into GDP.
