UAE Property Market Splits as Off-Plan Demand Outruns Resales
The UAE residential property market split in Q1 2026 as Dubai off-plan sales rose while secondary transactions declined. JLL data showed Dubai off-plan sales up 9.5 percent, secondary transactions down 8.2 percent and around 59,000 UAE residential units forecast for 2026 delivery. The practical question is whether the supply pipeline cools prices without weakening confidence in resale demand.
UAE Home Sales Split as Off-Plan Demand Outruns Secondary Deals
The UAE residential property market moved in two directions in the first quarter of 2026, with off-plan demand holding up while resale activity softened.
JLL data showed Dubai off-plan sales rose 9.5 percent in the quarter, while secondary market transactions fell 8.2 percent.
The shift points to a market adjusting rather than breaking.
Transaction activity slowed after regional uncertainty hit investor sentiment, and weekly transaction values in Dubai briefly dropped by nearly 50 percent before stabilising.
Taimur Khan, Head of Research, MEA at JLL, called the quarter "a clear divergence" for UAE real estate.
He pointed to pressure in hospitality and resilience in living, industrial and logistics, while saying government incentives and agile strategies were easing near-term strain.
New Launches Carry Abu Dhabi Volumes
Abu Dhabi also showed a mixed pattern.
New launches were the main support in Abu Dhabi, where volumes were more than twice the year-earlier level even though activity eased late in the quarter.
Prices still rose, but the pace moderated.
Annual residential price growth in Dubai slowed to between 8 percent and 12 percent, below earlier double-digit highs of up to 19 percent.
That gives buyers and developers a different pricing environment from the faster gains seen before, while keeping price growth positive rather than negative.
Rental behaviour showed similar caution.
In Dubai and Abu Dhabi, occupiers preferred more flexible arrangements, and shorter-term leasing became more common.
In Abu Dhabi, new rental contracts increased 13.4 percent even as total registrations declined, suggesting tenants were relocating rather than leaving the market.
Supply Pipeline Becomes the Next Test
Developers responded to softer demand with targeted discounts and more flexible payment terms, mainly for existing inventory rather than across the whole market.
That keeps the adjustment segment-specific for now, with incentives aimed at selected inventory rather than a broad reset across residential pricing.
The next supply signal is substantial.
The 2026 delivery forecast is about 59,000 homes across the UAE.
A bigger 2027 pipeline is expected, but supply chain disruption remains a timing risk.
The practical question is whether new supply arrives fast enough to cool prices without turning slower resale activity into a broader confidence problem.
If deliveries slip, the market may stay split between demand for new projects and caution in completed-home transactions.
