ASML Raises 2026 Sales Forecast As AI Chip Orders Lift Capacity Plans

ASML now expects 2026 sales of 43 billion euros to 45 billion euros, up from its previous 36 billion euro to 40 billion euro range, the Dutch semiconductor-equipment maker announced on Wednesday.

It raised that forecast for a second time this year as AI-chip customers expand manufacturing capacity.

The expected gross margin range also increased to 54% to 56%, from 51% to 53%, after second-quarter results came in above LSEG consensus estimates cited by CNBC.

2026 Sales Forecast Moves Above The Prior Range

Second-quarter net sales reached 9.3 billion euros, compared with the 8.8 billion euros expected by LSEG consensus estimates.

Net profit was 2.9 billion euros, above the 2.6 billion euro consensus figure.

Shares rose more than 7% at the market open before trading 4.4% higher.

CNBC described the stock as up 115% this year, placing the move within a wider investor debate over AI-related capital spending.

The Dutch group remains the only company producing extreme ultraviolet lithography machines used for the most advanced semiconductors.

Demand for those systems is tied to fabrication capacity at large chipmakers building for AI workloads.

Fouquet Says Orders Stayed Extremely Strong In The First Half

In the Wednesday statement, Chief Executive Christophe Fouquet described first-half order intake as "extremely strong." He added that the company will target a 30% addition to its 2026 low NA EUV capacity and a 30% addition to its 2026 Deep Ultraviolet immersion capacity.

Customers continue to "accelerate their capacity expansion plans," Fouquet said, and commitments now cover the company's product portfolio.

Those commitments, he added, give ASML more visibility into longer-term demand.

Morningstar senior equity analyst Javier Correonero told CNBC that the company is using several levers to bring capacity online.

He pointed to optimisation of cleanroom space in Veldhoven, where DUV and EUV machines are produced, and the use of so-called fast shipments.

TSMC Sales And Taiwan Packaging Plans Add Customer Context

Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co, one of ASML's largest customers, reported a 68% jump in June sales on strong chip demand.

Reuters, citing Taiwan's National Science and Technology Council Minister Wu Cheng-wen, wrote that TSMC plans to add two advanced chip packaging plants in Chiayi Science Park.

UBS analysts wrote in a July 10 note that semiconductor fabrication buildout and AI-driven demand for leading-edge chip production should help ASML see a stronger second half of the year.

The note added market context to the order and capacity comments.

Export controls remain part of the equipment outlook.

ASML shares fell 6% in April after U.S. lawmakers proposed a bill that would cut off DUV machine sales to Chinese chip companies, a proposal that still has to move through the U.S. legislative process.

China Sales Stay Near One-Fifth Of The 2026 Outlook

For the year, China is still expected to account for around 20% of total net sales, ASML indicated.

Chief Financial Officer Roger Dassen noted in a video-interview transcript that the Chinese market is moving in sync with the company's global behaviour.

Correonero argued that export restrictions have previously pulled demand forward as Chinese customers bought machines before further controls.

He also estimated ASML was trading at roughly a 50x forward PE, while Morningstar's valuation implies a 35-40x forward PE.

ASML plans to update longer-term goals at a Capital Markets Day on June 10 next year.

The public record still lacks customer-by-customer order volumes, China-specific DUV demand under the proposed U.S. bill and ramp dates for the 30% capacity additions.