HSBC’s Gulf IPO Pipeline Tests Whether Market Calm Can Restart Listings
HSBC Menat chief executive Selim Kervanci said the bank has 45 M&A and IPO mandates across the Gulf and expects listing activity to resume in the fourth quarter. Companies in food, consumer, retail and technology sectors delayed rather than cancelled listing plans during the US-Iran conflict and wider regional lull, leaving a backlog that depends on Q4 valuation clarity to reopen. The open question is whether improved sentiment can translate into valuations strong enough for Gulf issuers to reopen equity capital markets.
Gulf equity markets are moving from a relief rally to an execution test as HSBC points to a still-intact pipeline of mandates that could restart listings once investors are ready to price risk again.
HSBC Sees a Fourth-Quarter Listing Window
HSBC Menat chief executive Selim Kervanci said the bank has 45 mergers and acquisitions and initial public offering mandates across the Gulf.
He expects listing activity to resume in the fourth quarter, after uncertainty tied to the US-Iran conflict and wider regional risk slowed equity capital market transactions and deal flow.
For Gulf exchanges, the key distinction is that issuer demand did not disappear.
Kervanci said companies in the food, consumer, retail and technology sectors delayed listing plans, leaving a backlog that still requires valuation expectations and investor appetite to align.
Kervanci estimated that investor sentiment, equity capital market activity and deal flow would need at least one quarter to recover as regional conditions stabilize.
The fourth quarter therefore looks less like a guaranteed boom than a financing window that still has to prove buyers and sellers can agree on price.
Delayed Deals Put Valuation Back at the Center
Valuation uncertainty caused the slowdown.
Kervanci said uncertainty prevented investors from forming a clear valuation view, which became the main obstacle for equity capital market transactions coming to market.
Gulf listing pipelines have increasingly depended on domestic champions, family businesses and growth companies using public markets to fund expansion.
If buyers demand a war-risk discount while sellers still expect pre-conflict valuations, mandates can remain active without turning into completed IPOs.
The 2025 baseline shows why banks and exchanges are watching the restart closely.
Dealogic figures put wider regional IPO proceeds at $7.1 billion from 61 listings in 2025, versus $13.1 billion in 2024.
The amount raised in 2025 was also described as the lowest since 2020, when companies pulled in $22 billion.
Capital Needs Extend Beyond IPOs
The banking angle is wider than listings alone.
Kervanci said lenders such as HSBC are expected to be central to postwar efforts to rebuild infrastructure across the Middle East.
He said the region will need double-digit billions of dollars, or more, for damaged infrastructure, diversification plans and projects that reduce dependence on the Strait of Hormuz.
Kervanci pointed to spending across infrastructure schemes, AI projects, electricity storage, batteries and port capacity, although he said immediate preference would be for hydrocarbons infrastructure, especially oil and gas pipeline projects.
Banks could see fee opportunities across advisory, debt and equity markets, not just IPO execution.
The question now is whether demand is deep enough to clear deals without heavy discounts.
HSBC’s pipeline suggests issuers have not walked away, and regional officials and executives expect markets to recover.
But the next signal will be whether fourth-quarter transactions price successfully, especially for delayed companies in technology, retail and consumer sectors.
