Broadband Equipment Forecast Puts DOCSIS 4.0 Cost And Plant Cycle In Focus
Light Reading reported that Dell'Oro expects broadband access equipment revenue to grow 0.5% annually from 2026 to 2030, while cable outside plant revenue jumps in 2026 and peaks in 2027.
Broadband network spending is shifting from subscriber growth to equipment-price pressure and plant upgrades, with Light Reading reporting that Dell'Oro expects broadband access equipment revenue to rise at a 0.5% average annual rate from 2026 to 2030.
The forecast separates two operating problems for cable and fiber operators.
Access equipment revenue is being lifted by higher device prices, while outside-plant spending is being pulled forward as operators prepare hybrid fiber/coax networks for DOCSIS 4.0 and wider upstream capacity.
CPE Prices Carry The Access Forecast
Dell'Oro's latest forecast puts total broadband access equipment revenue on course to peak in 2028.
The category includes passive optical network equipment, remote PHY devices, remote optical line terminals, virtual cable modem termination systems and broadband customer premises equipment.
Unit and port shipment expectations have not changed much from the research firm's earlier forecast, but Light Reading reported that memory-price increases are raising the revenue outlook, especially for customer premises equipment.
Jeff Heynen, the Dell'Oro executive covering broadband access and home networking, described CPE average selling prices as rising sharply through this year and much of next year.
Wi-Fi 7 And DOCSIS CPE Split By Cost
The cost pressure shapes device choices before it changes headline upgrade plans.
Dell'Oro expects Wi-Fi 7 residential router and gateway revenue to keep growing through 2030, but Heynen said most Wi-Fi 7 CPE deployments are dual-band configurations rather than tri-band versions with 6GHz support.
DOCSIS equipment shows the same constraint.
Light Reading cited sources saying DOCSIS 4.0 CPE costs about $20 more per unit than DOCSIS 3.1+ CPE, while smaller and midsized cable operators are concentrating on DOCSIS 3.1+ devices before they commit to broader DOCSIS 4.0 network upgrades.
Outside Plant Buildout Peaks Earlier
The Dell'Oro forecast puts the access-network buildout ahead of the customer-device replacement cycle.
Heynen told Light Reading that large DOCSIS 4.0 and XGS-PON upgrade projects are in a buildout phase through 2028, while the same forecast expects cable outside plant equipment revenue to jump 20% in 2026 and peak in 2027.
That outside-plant category includes amplifiers, taps and optical distributed access architecture nodes.
Dell'Oro's cycle forecast places the new-amplifier total at about 10 million from 2025 to 2030, with nearly all of that equipment carrying transponders or DOCSIS modems for telemetry data.
Operators Buy Spectrum Headroom Before Using It
The purchasing pattern points to future-proofing rather than immediate service activation.
Heynen estimated that 1.8GHz-capable models account for roughly 65% of current cable amplifier sales on hybrid fiber/coax networks, while the remaining share goes to 1.2GHz amplifiers.
Operators may still run current services at 1.2GHz, but buying 1.8GHz amplifiers now keeps a later DOCSIS 4.0 move available without another plant replacement cycle.
The forecast leaves one commercial test unresolved: whether higher CPE and outside-plant costs can be recovered before new upstream capacity turns into measurable broadband revenue.
